Magic Cures with Seismic Ramifications

The Potential Risks of Cutting Corners to Cut Fat

Hands up if you’d be up for a quick drug to fix the biggest problem in your life. 🙋Unless you live under a rock, you will have heard that this is now available for one of the most sizeable (sorry) facing Western populations: Fat.  And the ramifications could stretch much, much further than waistlines.

Source: Unsplash

Obesity has become the biggest cause of preventable death in the West.  In the US it contributes to the premature death of more people each year than all American deaths in battle ever (source: Johann Hari).  In the UK, over 60% of the population are now overweight - a contributing factor in more than 50% of cancers and with preventable diabetes now costing the tax-payer 10% of the NHS budget.   In <50 years, the rapid introduction of ultra-processed foods coupled with increasingly sedentary lifestyles has resulted in excess-weight replacing malnutrition as the biggest health issue in the modern world. 

But the miracle solution is finally here: GLP-1s, e.g. ‘Ozempic’- injections that suppress appetite and trick your brain into ‘satiety,’ (a new favourite word).   It’s the reason why most of the celebrities you have seen pictures of recently are looking increasingly hollowed out. 

Given the evidence for its efficacy this could be the greatest antidote I have ever and will ever cover on this blog.  But there’s an oft-quoted saying that there are only two types of drugs:  drugs that don’t work and drugs with side effects.  The question is whether the benefits outweigh the side-effects.  And for this one, we need to look at the potential of far-reaching ramifications across the whole of society and the economy... not just those in the human body. 

The problem is, our politically short-term silo-ing of issues means we’re very bad at this, instead playing sticking-plaster wack-a-mole on unwelcome side effects as they arise.

Implications for Healthcare 

In the US, people have fewer barriers to getting their hands on anything that they’re prepared to shell out for.  Not so in a tax-funded health system.  

In a Spectator article by Max Pemberton this week, he discussed how this innovation - being rolled out rapidly across global health systems - has the potential to bankrupt the NHS, diverting resources from other conditions and potentially removing incentives to embrace healthier lifestyles.  He considers how far weight should be considered a ‘disease’ vs. a ‘lifestyle issue’ and how this might be evidence of more ‘mission creep into the realm of personal responsibility for our wellbeing’.   Such conversations come up frequently around issues like nose jobs, hair-loss and IVF and are challenging to draw lines within. 

Dear Government,

Fix us please. 

It’s not our fault (or responsibility?),

Kind regards,

The Electorate.

But if not tax-funded, might we not see an even starker socio-economic divide with poor access to such drugs for the less well off (already over-represented in the statistics)? 

The implications for the economy 

So let’s think this through looking at the US market where two thirds of adults are considered either obese (70 million) or overweight (99 million)… a mere 169 million. 

Imagine half of these were on the drug and dropped their calories intake by 50%...  Wow.  The impact of that on the convenience food industry.   Coke, Nestle, McDonalds, Krispy Kremes, Chocolottalatte frapacccinos….

The literal and almost over-night shrinking of half the population may be fantastic for the individual, but for industry, it requires agile forecasting and the ability to pivot rapidly to avoid mass industry demise (something few big businesses are adept at) = mass job losses. With the agricultural and food sector employing 10% of people in the US, ‘thin, but broke’ could be a very realistic possibility for many.  I’ve no doubt the food industry lobbyists are on the case.

Few product industries would be immune to this significant a change, but of course there would be benefits too:  the fashion industry would see a huge boost in demand alongside reduced textile costs (and, according to a fashion friend, handbag sales could go into steep decline… make of that what you will); the drugs apparently boost self-control across the board reducing smoking, drug and alcohol consumption;  airlines would save a shit-tonne on the cost of fuel-tonnes; the jewellery resizing industry is apparently already booming;  demand for medical devices for hip and knee joints will decline + + +   The mind boggles as to how many others might see a significant direct or indirect impact and the opportunities and threats it presents.  

And what about the black market?  There are undoubtedly shady entrepreneurs dissecting these drugs in unregulated underground labs at this very minute, hoping to cash in on the magic solution for an already multi-billion dollar industry drowning in quackery.  

The implications for long term health  

Few yet know the answer to this one yet, but it’s inevitable that such rapid weight loss will come with side effects - to muscle mass, bone density, joints, correlation to certain cancer-types and more.  And what about the possible loss of all the mental health benefit that comes with increased exercise (inevitably deprioritised by this, regardless of official ‘advice’). 

And what does the dramatic slimming-down of the celebrity world mean for already body-dysmorphic teenagers?  How many more crippling eating disorders might these trends trigger in our superficial, looks-obsessed world?  

The implications for not doing the hard work

This is the broader, more philosophical question that intrigues me.   In our modern quest for quick-fixes, is yet another ‘easy’ solution that absolves us from hard work good for us, as a society?  

Psychologically, we know the satisfaction and sense of personal fulfilment that follows effort.  The view at the top of the mountain is so joyous as a result of the energy expended to get there;  the food so much more delicious post the time in creation and careful preparation; the book that has the greatest impact on us is the one we write, not read..   Life is a journey of slow, hard-won achievements, not a destination where we should expect instant-gratification on tap.  

Interestingly, I heard that the suicide rate quadruples for people post bariatric stomach surgery with various theories as to why.  One being that the removal of food as a source of numbing comfort can send many into deep depression;  another that once the diagnosed single-source of unhappiness is solved, an existential crisis occurs as all the others come flooding to the fore:  loneliness, toxic relationships, poverty or poor life choices.   

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So many innovations in healthcare have revolutionised life on this planet - from antibiotics to vaccines - eradicating truly evil diseases and dramatically increasing life-expectancy. Let’s sincerely hope that this proves to be the next in that line.

All hail the scientists and inventors… until they give us reason to curse them for the new, different scourges they might unwittingly unleash on the world. 

Take my other obsession as a case in point: social media and the attention economy. Hailed for its global community-building powers of connectivity and for providing free access to all the information in the world,  but with the not insignificant ‘side effects’ of addiction, social polarisation, concentration degradation and the mental rewiring of our children.  Could we have foreseen that?

Certainly there’s a case for trying to look further around the corner on this one.

Personally, I suspect Ozembic PLUS Sweatcoin is a much better solution  (always be selling).